With the use of Super Profiles, the geodemographic classification system from CDMS, John Whitehead explains how the composition of a seat affects its voting behaviour
Super Profiles is a classification of residential neighbourhoods based primarily on published small area statistics from the 1991 census of Great Britain, together with data from the electoral roll, credit files and BMRB's Target Group Index [TGI]. To be precise, it is a classification of census enumeration districts and is a 'geodemographic' classification. The geographic units on which the classification is based contain an average of around 150 households each.
The classification was produced by CDMS who retain the copyright. It is built upon work undertaken in the 1980s at the Universities of Liverpool and Newcastle, and has been redeveloped in conjunction with the Regional Research Laboratory at Liverpool University.
For further information contact Business Geographics.
Although we are now six years from the 1991 census, and it may now be possible to point out local population changes, Super Profiles continues to offer a convenient short-hand summary of the overall socio-demographic composition of parliamentary constituencies.
The full classification goes into great detail, but for reference purposes we reproduce here the highest tier of the system which classifies neighbourhoods into 11 'lifestyle' groups, which are listed in order of household income, according to TGI data.
In these areas of high-income families with a lifestyle to match, we find heavy concentrations of affluent, two-car owning owner-occupiers. A clear majority of the population can be expected to be Conservative voters.
A rather older population profile than that for Affluent Achievers, we find more 'empty nesters' and retired here, but still with a prosperous way of life. Conservative voters should again predominate.
Here we find much of traditional, semi-detached suburbia. Comfortable, middle-class families, who will again show a general preference for the Conservative Party, are the norm, but Labour will be hoping some electors will be attracted to their vision of New Labour.
Younger, mortgaged families are the predominant feature of this group. Not as traditionally Conservative as the groups above, Labour and Liberal Democrats will both hope to make some inroads into these areas if they are to do well.
Cosmopolitan inner-city neighbourhoods make up this group. Although on balance skewed to more affluent young professionals, the overall make-up of many of these neighbourhoods can be quite mixed and offers something for all parties.
Rural in nature, although no longer necessarily offering high levels of agricultural employment, these areas range from remote rural areas to pretty commuter villages. Broadly Conservative in their loyalties, but with a strong local showing for the Liberal Democrats in many parts of the country.
On balance, the age profile of these areas tends to be elderly, with households of modest but adequate means. Where we encounter clearly recognisable retirement areas, Conservatives predominate, but we encounter such areas in smaller market towns, the Liberal Democrats also sometimes do quite well.
These are blue-collar industrial areas with relatively low unemployment and therefore modest affluence. Well-settled and often traditional communities, these include areas where there have been high levels of council house sales. Many of these new owner-occupiers were swing voters to the Conservatives in the 1980s who Labour must now win back if they are to form the next government.
Typically dominated by council housing, unemployment is an issue here. Whether in inner city tower blocks or peripheral housing estates, these areas contain the homes of the voters who have remained most loyal to Labour over the past decade.
Many single-parent families, very high unemployment, and serious social problems typify these areas. Although these are seemingly natural Labour voters, alienation and electoral apathy are problems that have to be overcome before the electors here turn out to vote.
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