|
|
|
Ilford South
|
|
gain
from Conservative
|
|
Mike Gapes
|
|
0 ( 0.0%)
|
|
15,073 (30.1%)
|
|
29,273 (58.5%)
|
|
3,152 ( 6.3%)
|
|
0 ( 0.0%)
|
|
2,521 ( 5.0%)
|
|
|
|
72,104
|
|
50,019 (69.4%)
|
|
Mike Gapes
|
|
Ilford South
|
|
2,520 ( 4.8%)
|
|
24,667 (46.9%)
|
|
22,147 (42.1%)
|
|
5,493 (10.4%)
|
|
0 ( 0.0%)
|
|
269 ( 0.5%)
|
|
|
Conservative
|
|
68,665
|
|
52,576 (76.6%)
|
|
|
-16.8%
|
|
+16.4%
|
|
-4.1%
|
|
+0.0%
|
|
+4.5%
|
|
+5.0%
|
|
-7.2%
|
|
|
|
|
Extensive boundary changes have affected the North East London seat of Ilford South. It has already seen a series of changes of hand (seven times since 1945, with the representation alternating for 30 years between two men, Albert Cooper for the Conservatives and Arnold Shaw for Labour). In 1992 the victor was Labour, in the form of Mike Gapes. But things are not so simple as that. Because insufficient population meant that the Boundary Commission has added parts of the Tory neighbouring seat of Ilford North, Gapes's majority has been more than wiped out and he will have to 'gain' his seat all over again. It is estimated that he needs a swing of 2.5 per cent.
This should not be too difficult. Mike Gapes has been an active member and should be able to exploit the small but real personal vote of an incumbent MP for the first time. Also, this part of Ilford is trending towards Labour. The proportion of residents of non-white (mainly Asian) residents has risen sharply in the last 15 years, reaching 34 per cent at the time of the last census, and this community has offered a fairly solid source of Labour support. Gapes can look forward to gaining Ilford South for the second time in five years.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
24
|
0.06
|
9.03
|
1
|
|
|
229
|
0.57
|
11.17
|
5
|
|
|
6,099
|
15.13
|
11.25
|
135
|
|
|
467
|
1.16
|
14.70
|
8
|
|
|
30,134
|
74.74
|
10.45
|
715
|
|
|
0
|
0.00
|
2.81
|
0
|
|
|
278
|
0.69
|
8.01
|
9
|
|
|
814
|
2.02
|
15.25
|
13
|
|
|
1,804
|
4.47
|
7.13
|
63
|
|
|
419
|
1.04
|
10.17
|
10
|
|
|
