Newbury gain from Conservative David Rendel 0 ( 0.0%) 21,370 (37.8%) 3,107 ( 5.5%) 29,887 (52.9%) 0 ( 0.0%) 2,112 ( 3.7%) 73,680 56,476 (76.7%) David Rendel Newbury 11,057 (18.8%) 32,898 (55.9%) 3,584 ( 6.1%) 21,841 (37.1%) 0 ( 0.0%) 539 ( 0.9%) Conservative 71,100 58,862 (82.8%) -18.1% -0.6% +15.8% +0.0% +2.8% +3.6% -6.1% On 6 May 1993 the west Berkshire constituency of Newbury dealt a terrible blow to John Major's government - and a fatal one to Norman Lamont's Chancellorship of the Exchequer. The occasion was a by-election caused by the untimely death of Judith Chaplin, formerly the political secretary to Prime Minister Major, and MP for less than a year. She had held Newbury by over 12,000 votes in April 1992, but the by-election was won by the Liberal Democrat David Rendel with a well-nigh unbelievable majority of 22,055. This represented a swing of 28.4 per cent from Conservative to Lib Dem on a turnout of over 71 per cent - one of the largest changes of mood in British electoral history. In 1992 the Conservatives recaptured every one of the seats they lost in by-elections in the previous Parliament - so will they retake Newbury too? This seems doubtful. The sheer scale of Rendel's victory makes it unusually hard to overturn. Also the Liberal Democrats have a strong local election base here, especially in the towns of the constituency, Newbury and Thatcham. Finally, it should be remembered that the Tories actually won that 1992 general election; all the public opinion evidence suggests that they will not win the 1997 election. All this adds up to a prediction of a Liberal Democrat hold in Newbury. 7,894 20.05 9.03 222 5,747 14.60 11.17 131 5,664 14.39 11.25 128 9,308 23.64 14.70 161 1,793 4.55 10.45 44 1,858 4.72 2.81 168 3,563 9.05 8.01 113 2,351 5.97 15.25 39 0 0.00 7.13 0 439 1.12 10.17 11