Bury South gain from Conservative David Sumberg 0 ( 0.0%) 16,225 (32.2%) 28,658 (56.9%) 4,227 ( 8.4%) 0 ( 0.0%) 1,216 ( 2.4%) 66,568 50,326 (75.6%) David Sumberg Bury South 728 ( 1.3%) 24,925 (46.0%) 24,197 (44.6%) 4,853 ( 9.0%) 0 ( 0.0%) 229 ( 0.4%) Conservative 66,391 54,204 (81.6%) -13.7% +12.3% -0.6% +0.0% +2.0% +0.3% -6.0% The less safe of the two marginal Tory seats in Bury, north of Manchester, is its southern division. In 1992 David Sumberg held off a strong Labour challenge by just 788 votes (while his colleague Alastair Burt won North by nearly 5,000). there are no boundary changes in the borough of Bury, and Sumberg will count himself very lucky if he can hold on next time against the predicted swing to New Labour. Bury South contains little of the town of Bury itself, but rather centres on a number of communities between Bury and Manchester's northern edge. Chief among these are Radcliffe, predominantly working-class, and Prestwich, which is generally believed to be more middle-class and suitable for commuters. There is also a substantial Jewish population in this area, although it is unclear which, if any, party that this helps. The Jewish community in Britain tends to be a little more inclined to Labour than average when socio-economic class is taken into account - but also more middle-class than average, which might cancel this out. All in all, there should be another interesting contest in Bury South, with the odds on a Labour gain in one of their three leading target seats in the north western region. Or to put it another way: if Labour do not win Bury South they have little chance of winning the general election as a whole. 4,640 12.27 9.03 136 3,229 8.54 11.17 76 6,475 17.13 11.25 152 8,662 22.91 14.70 156 565 1.49 10.45 14 0 0.00 2.81 0 4,442 11.75 8.01 147 4,209 11.13 15.25 73 2,277 6.02 7.13 84 2,966 7.85 10.17 77