Oldham East and Saddleworth gain from Conservative Chris Davies 0 ( 0.0%) 10,666 (19.7%) 22,546 (41.7%) 19,157 (35.4%) 0 ( 0.0%) 1,732 ( 3.2%) 73,189 54,101 (73.9%) Chris Davies Littleborough & Saddleworth 559 ( 1.0%) 20,271 (35.4%) 17,300 (30.2%) 19,712 (34.4%) 0 ( 0.0%) 0 ( 0.0%) Conservative 74,061 57,283 (77.3%) -15.7% +11.5% +1.0% +0.0% +3.2% -1.2% -3.4% There is going to be a titanic three way battle in the newly drawn seat of Oldham East and Saddleworth. It always would have been close, in this new seat just west of the Pennines in the north-west part of Greater Manchester. The notional figures calculated, had the constituency existed in 1992, suggest that then the Conservatives would have polled just over 20,000 votes, Labour 500 fewer, and the Liberal Democrats 17,300. This three-way marginal status would have been interesting enough, but things have been made even more complicated by the by-election which took place in July 1995 following the death of Geoffrey Dickens, the Conservative MP for Littleborough and Saddleworth, the former seat which makes up 68 per cent of the new constituency. The Tories came third in that by-election, although they did not turn in as bad a performance as at some in the most recent parliament. The main battle, though, was between Labour's Phil Woolas and the Liberal Democrat Chris Davies, who emerged triumphant by just under 2,000 votes. The scene is set, here among the relatively affluent neat villages and small towns of the Pennine hills, for a reprise of the by-election contest. The same candidates have been selected, and it would be foolish to predict a firm winner. However, if Labour win the general election on a national surge, their man Phil Woolas might just get his nose in front this time. 2,460 5.56 9.03 62 2,801 6.33 11.17 57 7,474 16.89 11.25 150 9,976 22.55 14.70 153 1,824 4.12 10.45 39 166 0.38 2.81 13 4,488 10.14 8.01 127 6,186 13.98 15.25 92 4,217 9.53 7.13 134 4,580 10.35 10.17 102