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A border seat, with a long frontier with the Republic, this is traditionally the scene of bitter unionist/nationalist rivalry. When the nationalist vote is split between Sinn Fein and the SDLP, as it was in 1992, the Ulster Unionists take the seat, but when one side stands down, as happened in a by-election in 1981, when the SDLP stood down and hunger-striker Bobby Sands was elected, the nationalists triumph.
The UUP's Ken Maginnis stands to have his majority reduced by boundary changes but, barring a last minute nationalist electoral pact, he will be returned to the Commons.
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